DairyBusiness Update for 11.1.13

DairyBusiness Update: Nov. 1, 2013


USDA’s monthly Milk Production report is back

September milk production in the top 23 states totaled 14.8 billion lbs., up 1.1% from September 2012, according to preliminary data in USDA’s latest Milk Production report, issued Nov. 1. This is the first report to again include milk cow numbers and output per cow since the sequester. Output in the 50 states totaled 15.8 billion lbs., up 1% from a year ago. Revisions lowered the original August total to 15.7 billion lbs., up 2.5% from August 2012. 

September cow numbers totaled 8.51 million head, down 19,000 from August, but 33,000 more than September 2012. Output per cow averaged 1,741 lbs., up 12 lbs. from a year ago.

Comparing September 2013 to a year earlier, the biggest year-to-year milk production increase was seen in Florida, up 7.1%, followed by Kansas at 5.9%, and Iowa at 5.5%. Idaho recorded the biggest decline, down 1.5%, followed by New Mexico, off 1.4%, and Missouri, off 1%.

California output was up just 0.4%, with cow numbers up 1,000 head and output per cow was up 5 lbs. Wisconsin saw a 1% milk production increase, thanks to a 15-lb. per cow gain and 1,000 more cows.

Idaho milk production was down 1.5%, on 9,000 fewer cows. New York saw a 1.8% increase, thanks to a 30-lb. gain per cow. Pennsylvania was up 1.5%, on a 25-lb. gain per cow, although cow numbers were down 1,000. Minnesota was unchanged in milk output, cow numbers and output per cow.

Michigan was up 3.4% on a 30-lb. gain per cow and 7,000 more cows. Texas was up 1.4%, with a 7,000-cow increase offsetting a 5-lb. per cow output decline. Washington was up 1.6% on the strength of 4,000 more cows, but output per cow was unchanged from a year ago.

July-September 2013 quarterly milk production was estimated at 49.4 billion lbs., up 1.5% from a year ago. The average number of milk cows during the quarter was 9.23 million head, up 16,000 from the same period last year.


California October 4a/4b prices announced

California’s October 4b cheese milk price is $16.82/cwt., up 17¢ from September 2013, but $2.61 less than October 2012, and $1.40 below the comparable federal order Class III price. The year-to-date 2013 4b average is $16.17/cwt., up from $15.16 at this time a year ago. 

The 4a butter-powder milk price is $20.00/cwt., up 53¢ from September 2013 and $2.04 more than year ago. The 2013 average now stands at $18.44/cwt., up from $15.18/cwt. for the same period a year ago.


NDB appointees named

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack appointed 14 members to the National Dairy Promotion and Research Board (NDB). Thirteen appointees will serve 3-year terms, and one will serve a 2-year term.

Newly appointed members are: Carol Ahlem, Hilmar, Calif. (Region 2); Christopher Brazil, Escalon, Calif. (Region 2); Brian Medeiros, Hanford, Calif. (Region 2); Lisa Vander Eyk, Pixley, Calif. (Region 2); Eddie Schaap, Clovis, N.M. (Region 4); Sarah Lloyd, Wisconsin Dells, Wis. (Region 6); Cheryl Chapin, Remus, Mich. (Region 9); and Joseph Kelsay (term ending on Oct. 31, 2015), Whiteland, Ind. (Region 9).

Reappointed to serve second terms were: Renae De Jager, Chowchilla, Calif. (Region 2); Jeffrey Hardy, Brigham City, Utah (Region 3); Zachary Myers, Jonesville, N.C. (Region 10); David Crowl, Forest Hill, Md. (Region 11); Sanford Stauffer, Nicholville, N. Y. (Region 12); and Susan Troy, Wilmette, Ill. (Importer).


Mielke’s Market Daily

(A daily wrap-up of dairy markets and the things affecting them, from DairyBusiness Update associate editor Lee Mielke)

The cash dairy markets were absorbing the data contained in three USDA reports issued yesterday, and were anticipating this afternoon’s September Milk Production report. 

FC Stone risk management specialist Chris Hildebrand wrote in this morning’s eDairy Insider Opening Bell that the Cold Storage report was “neutral to slightly bullish for cheese,” and “provided more bullish news for butter.” “Both the fundamentals and some technicals are working in favor of the upside for butter.” 

Cash block cheddar ticked up another 1.25¢ this morning, following a 1.5¢ jump yesterday, and closed the day and the week at $1.9025/lb. Five cars found new homes this morning, 4 cars at $1.89/lb. and 1 at $1.8950/lb. A bid at $1.9025/lb. went unfilled and moved the price higher. The blocks are up 2.75¢ on the week, but a whopping 20.75¢ below a year ago. 

Cheddar barrels gained 2¢ on an unfilled bid, following a 3¢ rise yesterday on a sale, and finished today at $1.87/lb. The barrels are up 5¢ on the week, but 21¢ below a year ago. Nine cars of block traded hands this week and only three of barrel.

Driven by Thanksgiving demand and some bullish sentiment in yesterday’s Cold Storage report, cash butter jumped 3.25¢ this morning and closed the day and the week at $1.5325/lb. Three cars exchanged hands, with prices ranging from $1.52-$1.53/lb, An unfilled bid took it to its closing $1.5325/lb.; an offer at $1.55/lb. got no interest. Today’s closing butter price is up 5.75¢ on the week, but still 35.5¢ below a year ago. Nine cars traded hands on the week

Cash powder was quiet today. Grade A remained at $1.91/lb., following yesterday’s 1¢ advance, while the Extra Grade held all week at $1.85/lb. 

Today’s market closing prices:

Butter: up 3.25¢, to $1.5325/lb.

Cheddar blocks: up 1.25¢, to $1.9025/lb.

Cheddar barrels: up 2¢, to $1.87/lb.

Grade A nonfat dry milk: unchanged, at $1.91/lb.

Extra Grade nonfat dry milk: unchanged, at $1.85/lb.

Class III milk: +5¢ to -7¢ through December 2014. Based on current CME closing prices, the Q4 2013 average is $18.44/cwt.; with an overall 2013 average of $17.93/cwt.; and a 2014 average of $16.96/cwt.

Looking to next week, USDA issues its September Dairy Products report Monday afternoon. The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates is issued Friday afternoon, and California’s December Class I milk prices are also scheduled to be announced on Friday.


Corn, soybeans, soybean meal futures trading

Today’s futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange:

Corn: -1¢ to -3¢ through December 2014, settling in a range of $4.27-$4.67/bushel.

Soybeans: -10¢ to -15¢ through November 2014. November 2013 through August  2014 contracts settled in a range of $12.12-$12.66/bushel.

Soybean meal: -$6.10 to -$8.70/ton through December 2014. December 2013-September 2014 contracts settled in a range of $357-$395/ton.


Monday on DairyLine:

• “UHT milk” offers a solid opportunity: USDEC’s Alan Levitt

• Manure that neighbors don’t complain about: Dave Kaltneberg with SFP. 


This week in DairyBusiness Update:

1) Fall back in time: USDA’s milk production report resumes (later today); MILC ends quietly

2) Page 2: California’s ‘disagreement’; corn’s short crop/long tail

3) Trends: After the shutdown: Tons of numbers flow

4) Industry: Dairy co-op numbers shrink in NCB ‘Top 100’

5) Washington: Farm Bill negotiations go behind closed doors


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