DairyBusiness Update: July 17, 2014

USDA Dairy Outlook: July 17, 2014
As it always does, USDA’s monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, issued this morning, mirrored dairy projections contained in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued July 11. Milk production was reduced fractionally from June based on lower expected yield per cow. Slightly lower production combined with firm domestic commercial use and exports act to keep milk and dairy product prices high this year. Cow numbers were forecast to rise 2015, based on improved producer returns, leading to higher production. Higher milk production next year will likely lead to lower milk and dairy product prices in 2015.
   Corn production for 2014/15 is lowered 75 million bushels from June in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The reduction is based on lower projected harvested acreage in the June Acreage report. However, lower expected feed and residual use, down by 50 million bushels from June, and higher expected beginning stocks, 100 million bushels higher than last month, more than offset the lower production forecast, resulting in a lowered expected season average price of $3.65-$4.35 per bushel.
   Soybean meal prices were lowered this month from last month’s forecast to $350-$390 a ton. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.8 billion bushels based on year-over-year increased expected harvested acreage. While corn and soybean meal prices in 2014/15 are likely to be lower than this year’s prices, forage prices are likely to remain firm.
   The June Agricultural Prices report placed the preliminary June 2014 alfalfa hay price at $222 a ton, virtually unchanged from May or from June 2013. The June Acreage report indicated the planting of all hay is down slightly from 2013. California remains drought stricken; however, the mid-West is expected to show improvement from last year.
   On balance, the lower corn and soybean meal prices will continue to moderate feed prices through the balance of 2014 and into 2015. The feed price outlook, combined with continued strong milk prices, is expected to signal producers to increase cow numbers in 2015.
   Dairy cow numbers are forecast to total 9,260 thousand head this year and to increase to 9.345 million head next year; both years’ projections are increased fractionally from June. Milk per cow is lowered slightly from June to 22,230
pounds per cow in 2014 and increased from June to 22,730 pounds per cow next year. Next year, strong year-over-year rises in output per cow and modest herd expansion boosts milk production from June’s forecast to 212.4 billion pounds.

This year, milk production is lowered fractionally from the June forecast to 205.9 billion pounds, as lower output per cow offsets higher cow numbers. According to the June Milk Production report in the 23 surveyed States, the strongest percentage increases in year-over-year milk production were posted in western States, with Texas, Colorado, and Arizona leading the rise. Small declines in milk production were observed in the Midwest, with Ohio showing the largestdeclines in 2014 from 2013. Wisconsin was unchanged from 2013.
   Fats-basis milk equivalent imports are forecast to be 3.5 billion pounds in 2014 based on year-to-date movement and then to hold at 3.5 billion pounds in 2015. Imports are forecast at 5.2 billion pounds this year and 5.1 billion pounds next year on a skims-solids basis. Skims-solids forecasts are lowered from June. Current year fats-basis exports are lowered from June to 13.2 billion pounds as high domestic butter prices curtail exports. Fats- basis exports for 2015 are unchanged from June at 13.0 billion pounds. Skims-solids exports are raised in July to 40.4 billion pounds based mostly on higher than expected year-to-date shipments of nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder (NDM/SMP).
   Next year, skims-solids basis exports are projected at 39.1 billion pounds, an increase from June’s forecast, but a year-over-year decline, based on increased foreign competition; however, global demand for NDM/SMP will remain strong. Internationally, exports are responding to high global demand. In the European Union, milk deliveries are at an all-time high, but robust foreign demand appears to support prices. Despite strong foreign competition, U.S. exports have remained firm, especially NDM and SMP exports to Mexico.
   Firm domestic commercial use of dairy products is expected in light of continued economic recovery. Domestic commercial use, on a fats basis, is forecast at 195.6 billion pounds, unchanged from June. However, next year domestic commercial use on a fats basis is expected to climb to 200.6 billion pounds, an increase from June’s forecast as well as a 2.6 percent year-over-year rise. On a skims-solids basis, domestic commercial use is forecast to reach 169.3 billion pounds, a dropoff from June’s forecast, and then to rise to 177.2 billion pounds in 2015.
Dairy product prices are increased this month for 2014. Cheese prices are projected higher this month based on current price strength. The prices are forecast to average $2.030 to $2.060 per pound this year and fall to $1.670- $1.770 in 2015 based on continued increases in milk production. Butter prices are revised upward from June to $1.965-$2.025 per pound based on strength in demand and tight supply. That condition is expected to continue into 2015 as butter prices are revised upward this month to $1.650-$1.780 per pound; however, prices will decline on a year-over-year basis. July NDM price forecasts reflect the robust export outlook for those products and will likely average $1.835-$1.865 per pound in 2014 and decline to $1.605-$1.675 per pound in 2015. July whey prices are forecast up from June to 63.5-65.5 cents per pound for the current year and to fall to 55.0-58.0 cents per pound in 2015, unchanged from June.
The price outlook for the major dairy products points to declines in 2015 in class and all milk prices. The Class III price is forecast at $21.00- $21.30 per cwt this year, falling to $16.95-$17.95 per cwt in 2015. The Class IV prices continue to lead Class III prices both this year and next, averaging $21.95-$22.35 per cwt and sliding to $18.70-$19.80 per cwt in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The all milk price is forecast to average $23.25-$23.55 per cwt in 2014 and to fall to $19.75-$20.75 per cwt in 2015.
   To view the entire report log on to http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-utlook/ldpm-241.aspx.

Quick Glance:
Quarterly and annual milk prices and projections

Year            All milk        Class III          Class IV




























































































                                     2012    2013    2014  1st     2nd  3rd     4th     2015  1st     2nd

Milk Output (bil.lbs.)  200.5   201.2   205.9  51.9 52.7  50.9  51.2  212.4  52.8  54.3  

Cow #s (mil)                 9.23     9.22    9.26   9.22  9.25  9.28  9.30   9.35   9.32  9.33

A ‘Butter View’ What’s Behind the High Price
   Cream availability is tighter in the Central region, according to Dairy Market News (DMN). Some butter plant operators, though, are selling FOB cream loads to capture advantageous returns from the spot market. Butter production is steady to lower as milk intakes decline seasonally and ice cream/cream cheese operations continue to draw upon cream supplies. Butter interest into retail is light, with few features running in grocery stores. Food service demand for chips/cups/continentals is active as summer vacations and seasonal travel spur carry out and eat in dining sales. Industrial butter sales are steady. Butter inventories are tight at many locations in the Central region.  Some butter churn operators are buying bulk butter from other manufacturers and reworking it to meet current and near term obligations. 
   Looking westward; DMN reports that the volatility of the butter market has some butter orders being priced on day shipped to better reflect current prices. Butter production in the West is steady to lower as hot weather is reducing incoming solids across much of the region. Temperatures in the 100s have reduced overall milk intakes. Good demand from ice cream and cream cheese manufacturers have some butter plants selling cream. This is also adding to lower butter production. Butter inventories continue to lag typical levels as previously committed export sales continue to be delivered.  Manufacturers are aware of increased domestic retail demand for the remainder of the year and are beginning to reserve churns to fill those needs.

Cheese View: Where are the Barrels?
   Central cheese production is easing slightly lower seasonally, according to Dairy Market News. Milk production has passed the peak in the estimation of most cheese makers. Some plants are taking spot surplus milk at prices ranging from $1.00 under to $1.00 over to help production. Condensed skim is being added in some cheese plants to improve vat yields. Some plants have made slight reductions in production schedules to reflect milk availability.  
   Mozzarella orders show some seasonal weakness due to slower pizza sales, but that aside, cheese buyers are taking orders and other buyers are looking for cheese.     
   Cheese availability outside contract orders is tighter in the Midwest. Barrels are harder to find than blocks. Most aging programs have already stocked necessary cheese.  Most processor and packager schedules are steady to lighter.
   Cheese production in the West continues to be busy, but milk volumes are decreasing as hot weather affects milk production. Manufacturers are filling previously arranged export orders in addition to regular contract sales to domestic customers. Domestic demand is steady as buyers look to refill their inventories on price breaks whenever possible. Retail sales look to be mostly steady. Some mozzarella manufacturers report slower sales and have decreased production to match needs.

Dairy Margins Favorable into Fall….However…
   Milk and dairy product prices continue to decline from the record levels of a few months ago but they remain at high levels by historical standards, says the July Dairy Market Report from Dairy Management Incorporated and National Milk.
   Growth in commercial use in domestic and export markets is still outpacing modest growth in milk production, although a buildup in cow numbers and faster growth in milk production is likely soon. Recent Agriculture Department reports have largely convinced markets that grain stocks are more ample than expected and very large harvests are expected this fall. These factors are putting downward pressure on feed prices. All this suggests that milk-price-over-feed-cost margins for producers will remain favorable into the fall. The report covers dairy product commercial use, dairy trade, milk production, and more.
   Read the entire report at www.nmpf.org.

   Dr. John Newton and Todd Kuethe, in their July 16 FarmDoc posting, reviews the historical performance of the Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program using data provided by USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) to demonstrate how the Margin Protection Program (MPP), by increasing production coverage to be more accommodating to all U.S. dairy producers, offers a larger safety net program and is capable of providing considerably more production coverage than the existing, and soon to be expired, MILC program. 
   Historically U.S. federal dairy safety net support programs have been designed to provide milk price floors and counter-cyclical revenue support for dairy farmers. The MILC program enacted with the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002, and as amended in 2008, provides countercyclical revenue support to dairy producers on up to 2.985 million pounds of milk per fiscal year (approximately 140 cows). MILC makes payments to farmers when the USDA announced Boston class I milk price falls below $16.94 per cwt adjusted to reflect the prices of corn, soybeans, and alfalfa hay (see here).
   However, consolidation and concentration in the dairy industry has resulted in an increase in the average size of the U.S. dairy farm and a decrease in the number of dairy farm operations (see here). Recent USDA livestock statistics estimate that the largest 5% of dairy operations (500+ cows) produced more than 63% of the milk in the U.S.; while the bottom 88% (<200 cows) produced 24% of the milk in the U.S. (see here). Due in large part to volatility in feed commodities, industry consolidation, and the inability of MILC to provide safety net coverage on a larger portion of the milk supply, the existing safety net programs are viewed to be inadequate to accommodate the modern scale economies of the US dairy sector.
   In place of milk price and revenue support programs, the 2014 Farm Bill creates the MPP for Dairy Producers. MPP is a voluntary target-index safety net program that provides income-over-feed-cost (IOFC) margin protection at various farmer-selected margin levels and coverage percentages (i.e. from $4 to $8 per hundredweight and 25% to 90% coverage). The features of MPP have been covered comprehensively here on (farmdoc daily May 1, 2014). However, when comparing MILC and MPP, one of the appealing features of MPP is the increase in production eligibility constraints - farms of all sizes can purchase IOFC margin protection on milk pounds equal to their historical maximum levels of milk production. Then in subsequent years the amount of milk eligible for coverage at the farm-level will be revised by USDA using trends in U.S. milk production.
   The posting then looks at the historical performance of the MILC program. Read the complete discussion at: http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2014/07/mapping-dairy-safe-net-mllc-margin-protection-program.html.

Codex Renews Efforts on Processed Cheese
   Two IDFA staff members traveled to Geneva, Switzerland, this week to attend the 37th Session of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, the United Nation’s international food standard-setting body. Clay Hough, IDFA senior group vice president, and John Allan, IDFA vice president of regulatory affairs and international standards, reported that the Commission took action on two items that are particularly relevant to dairy.
On Tuesday, the Commission agreed to continue work to develop a new Codex standard for “processed cheese.” After years spent to trying to come to agreement on specific product characteristics defining such products, without success, Codex agreed to a change tactics and attempt to develop a more general standard that will:
Provide a recognized standard for a range of products that are widely consumed in many countries;
Contribute to food safety by detailing appropriate methods of processing (heat treatment) and composition;
Ensure fair practices in the food trade by providing a standard recognized in both exporting and importing countries, and include labeling of significant information, such as ingredient declaration and product composition;
Satisfy needs of developing countries by providing a framework for more consistent national standards for processed cheese, and for a food with a relatively long shelf life with some products not requiring refrigeration; and
Help to avoid misleading consumers on these products and provide more transparency in international trade.
   IDFA did not support the continuation of this work. “Our opposition was supported by the delegation of the United States, which publicly intervened against continuing work on the standard, stating that there was no evidence of safety or trade issues that would necessitate a standard,” said Hough. “Various Codex entities have attempted to create a consensus standard for over a decade without success. In fact, the effort to forge a general standard has also been tried before and did not work.”
   Unfortunately, he said, numerous countries from Latin America, Africa and the Near East supported yet another effort and many of these “flagged up” and spoke in support of a standard during consideration by the Commission.
   In addition, the Commission agreed to reactivate the Codex Committee on Milk and Milk Products (CCMMP) to lead this work. New Zealand will continue to host and serve as chair of CCMMP. The delegation of Uruguay will help co-lead the work on processed cheese, which is planned to conclude by 2016. However, most of the same impediments that blocked the creation of a standard over the last decade still exist and will make creation of a new standard extremely difficult. IDFA will continue to participate in this process.
   A proposal by Denmark to develop a Codex standard for Whey Permeate was also discussed. The Commission agreed to establish a working group within CCMMP that would revise the proposal and resubmit it to the Commission at its 2015 annual meeting for approval. If approved, CCMMP would then proceed in developing the standard.
   IDFA is aware that the American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI) has recently prepared a whey permeate standard, which was developed with input from Danish industry counterparts. IDFA anticipates that this industry standard will serve, at least in part, as a foundation for the development of a Codex standard.
   Details are posted at www.idfa.org.

India to China: “You Keep your Dairy Products”
   The Daily Dairy Report says India reaffirmed its ban on Chinese milk and dairy products, extending the sanction through June 22, 2015, according to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The prohibition includes: chocolates, chocolate products, candies, and other foods made with milk or milk solids. India’s ban on Chinese milk and dairy products has been in place since 2008.
   In that year, China’s dairy industry suffered from a scandal related to milk tainted with melamine that killed four children and sickened thousands of others. Since 2008 China has been taking steps to improve product safety and regain consumer confidence. The road to recovery for China’s dairy industry has been peppered with setbacks and has been slow to materialize.

USJersey Elects Officers & Directors
   Officers and directors of the USJersey organizations were elected during the Annual Meetings of the American Jersey Cattle Association (AJCA) and National All-Jersey Inc. (NAJ) held in Alexandria, Va.
   Chris Sorenson, Pine River, Wis., was re-elected for a third term as President of the American Jersey Cattle Association during the Annual Meeting on June 28. Sorenson is a partner in Sorenson Hillview Jersey Farm Inc. The 850-acre farm includes a 100-cow Registered Jersey™ herd enrolled on REAP, the association’s comprehensive service package that includes registration, Equity milk marketing support, type appraisal, and performance testing.
   Alan Chittenden, Schodack Landing, N.Y., was elected to the Board of Directors from the Second District, succeeding Charles F. Luchsinger, Syracuse, N.Y. Chittenden is a fourth-generation Jersey breeder and partner in Dutch Hollow Farm LLC, a 600-cow Registered Jersey™ herd enrolled on REAP. In 2003, he was appointed to the AJCA Type Advisory Committee, serving as chair in 2008. He is currently director for New England Jersey Sires Inc. and the New England Jersey Breeders Association. Alan received the AJCA Young Jersey Breeder Award with his wife Donna in 2000.
   W. Phil Gordon, Syracuse, Ind., was re-elected to a three-year term as AJCA Director from the Sixth District, serving on the Finance and Development committees during his first term. Gordon is a third-generation, lifelong Jersey breeder, with the Gordon Farms herd of 35 Registered Jersey™ cows now housed at Mybrook Farms in Middlebury, Ind. Professionally, Phil worked as a vo-ag teacher, then in Extension education with Purdue University for 21 years. He was Elkhart County Director for 17 years before retiring in 2003.
   Edward F. Kirchdoerfer, Cape Girardeau, Mo., was elected to his first term as AJCA Director from the Eighth District, succeeding Jerry Spielman, Seneca, Kans. He is partner in Kirchdoerfer Dairy Farm, a family operation established in 1896 that has milked Registered Jerseys™ since 1949. Eddie was appointed to the AJCA Type Advisory Committee in 2009, and currently serves as its chair. He is also chairperson for the All American Jersey Sale, to be held November 9 in Louisville, Ky. He received the AJCA Young Jersey Breeder Award with wife Amy in 2001.
   Kelvin Moss, Litchfield Park, Ariz., was elected as an AJCA Director from the Eleventh District, succeeding Jim Quist, Fresno, Calif. Moss and his wife, Kathy, own Mountain Shadow Dairy LLC, a 1,300-cow dairy enrolled in AJCA’s REAP program. He was appointed a Director at-large of National All-Jersey Inc. in 2002, also serving as NAJ Finance Chair and as a member of the AJCA-NAJ Joint Operations Committee. He is currently on the Board of Directors of United Dairymen of Arizona, and previously served as a director of the Arizona Dairy Herd Improvement Association.
   David Endres, Lodi, Wis., was elected to a third term as Director for District 4 on the Board of National All-Jersey Inc. (NAJ). He operates Endres Jazzy Jerseys, a 700-cow Registered Jersey™ dairy enrolled on REAP. He has held leadership positions with Wisconsin Farm Bureau and the former Alto Dairy Cooperative and been a media contact on dairy and agriculture issues for the Professional Dairy Producers of Wisconsin.
   Richard A. Doran, Jr., Newberry, S.C., was appointed by the American Jersey Cattle Association to a four-year term as Director at-large on the NAJ Board. Doran operates Bush River Jerseys, is currently the vice chairman of the South Carolina Farm Bureau Water Use Committee and previously served two terms on the AJCA Board of Directors.
Following the organization’s Annual Meeting on June 27, David Endres was elected to serve a sixth term as President. James S. Huffard III, Crockett, Va., was re-elected Vice President.
   USJersey signifies the organizations dedicated to promoting the Jersey breed of cattle in the United States and their dairy farmer members. The American Jersey Cattle Association, organized in 1868, compiles and maintains animal identification and performance data on Jersey cattle and provides services that support genetic improvement and greater profitability. Since 1957, National All-Jersey Inc. has provided services that increase the value of and demand for Jersey milk and milk products and Registered Jersey™ cattle and genetics. For more information, visit the website at
www.USJersey.com or connect at facebook.com/USJersey.

Deadline Approaching on Stout Experience Award
   Persons who have a strong desire to pursue a career in managing and/or marketing Registered Jersey™ cattle are encouraged to apply for the 2015 Fred Stout Experience awards. The awards are presented annually in memory of Fred J. Stout Sr., Mt. Carmel, Ill., a lifelong Jersey breeder and member of the Jersey Marketing Service staff from 1978 to 1997 who believed that the best learning experiences happen in the everyday world.
   Two awards will be offered: (1) a minimum 10-week summer marketing internship with Jersey Marketing Service, Reynoldsburg, Ohio, and (2) a minimum 10-week on-farm, customized internship in Jersey herd management. Financial support is provided by a permanent endowment created by friends and colleagues of Fred Stout.
   Get complete details at www.USJersey.com.

Cow Pie Bingo Has Lots of “Green”
The permanent fund for Jersey Youth Academy added $5,230 from the sixth annual Cow Pie Bingo, held June 27 at the Holiday Inn & Suites-Historic District in Alexandria, Va., during the annual meetings of the American Jersey Cattle Association and National All-Jersey Inc.
   The heifer for this year’s fundraiser was donated by High Lawn Farm, Lee, Mass., from its foundational “Pride” family. High Lawn Penny Score has a genomic Jersey Performance Index™ of 133 and is a daughter of High Lawn Vibrant Score-ET, GJPI 229. She is a maternal descendant of Secret Welcome Pride, Excellent-92%, a national senior 3-year-old 305-day milk champion on her record of 18,803 lbs. milk and 1,007 lbs. fat (5.4%) in 1955.
   The board sold out in a record twelve hours. A total of 105 individuals and farms made donations of $10, $25 or $50 to select one or more of the 192 squares available.
   Following contest procedures, the heifer was led into a pen marked off into 192 one-foot squares and let free to roam until a cow pie was dropped or one hour had passed. The results were recorded and video of “Penny” making her deposit was shown at the start of the 57th National Heifer Sale. The winning square was held by C. A. and Kirsten Russell of Yosemite Jersey Dairy, Hilmar, Calif. They donated the heifer back to sell for the benefit of the Burdette-Stiles Family medical support fund, raising another $3,700 on the successful bid of Sexing Technologies, Navasota, Texas.
 Cow Pie Bingo has now raised $42,130 for the endowment of Jersey Youth Academy. Jersey Youth Academy is a 501(c) (3) educational foundation managed by the American Jersey Cattle Association to attract, educate and retain talented young people for careers in the Jersey dairy business. Contributors represent a broad spectrum of Jersey breeder and dairy industry support.
   The fourth Jersey Youth Academy will be held in July of 2015. For more information, contact program coordinator Dr. Cherie L. Bayer at (614) 322-4456, or write Jersey Youth Academy, 6486 E. Main Street, Reynoldsburg, OH 43068-2362.

Mielke Market Daily (A daily wrap-up of dairy markets and the things affecting them, from DairyBusiness Update Associate Editor Lee Mielke)
   Cheese traders are speculating on the outcome of tomorrow’s June Milk Production report. Was output above expectations, below, or right where they expected it to be? That’s the guessing game. At any rate, the Cheddar blocks ticked up 2¢ this morning on an unfilled bid and hit $2.0225/lb., with an offer at $2.06/lb. left on the board. The barrels were also up 2¢, hitting $2.06/lb., 3.75¢ above the blocks. Four carloads traded hands this morning, all at that price with a two bids at $2.06/lb. going unfilled.
   Spot butter shot up 6¢ on a trade to $2.45/lb., highest level since June 30, with two bids at that price untouched.
   Powder, after holding steady for four sessions, dropped 2¢ today on two uncovered offers, dipping to $1.7150/lb., the lowest it has been since June 19, 2013.
    NFDM has a “weak flavor to it,” said FC Stone risk management consultant Chris Hildebrand in this morning’s Insider Opening Bell. "Non-fat numbers last night came out much higher than expected with an increase of just over 2.5 cents week over week with good volume numbers. While positive for the market, we are hearing strong inventory reports out of China. This could keep overall demand soft as we move through the summer months and shores up the reasoning behind overall softer GDT prices."

Today’s Market Closing Prices
Butter: Up 6¢, to $2.45/lb.
Cheddar blocks: Up 2¢, to $2.0225/lb.   
Cheddar barrels: Up 2¢, to $2.06/lb.
Grade A nonfat dry milk: Down 2¢, to $1.7150/lb.
Class III milk (prelim.): July $21.51/cwt., +5¢; Aug. $21.42, +15¢; Sept. $20.42, +7¢, Oct. $19.95, -5¢; Nov. $19.44, -6¢; & Dec. $19.17, -3¢. Based on today’s CME settlements, the Third Quarter 2014 average now stands at $21.12, +9¢ from Wednesday. The Fourth Quarter average is now at $19.52, -5¢ from Wednesday. The First Quarter 2015 average is now at $18.22, -7¢ from Wednesday.


Looking ahead:
   The Agriculture Department issues its preliminary June Milk Production report tomorrow afternoon. Looking to next week; the preliminary June Cold Storage data will be issued by USDA on Tuesday afternoon, July 22. The August Federal order Class I base milk price is announced by USDA Wednesday afternoon. The monthly Livestock Slaughter report is out Thursday afternoon.


Friday on DairyLine:
   FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski discusses the current dairy markets.
   Dr. Mike Hutjens tells us about monitoring milk components during the summer heat stress period in his weekly
       “Feed Facts” program.   


This Week in DairyBusiness Weekly:

Click here to view the latest issue!  Click here to subscribe for 48 FREE issues!

TIPS: DairyBusiness Weekly is best viewed in full screen mode. Double click to zoom. Also, don't forget to add this email address to your email address book. Failure to do so could cause the weekly issues to be routed to your junk or spam folders.