“Farmer sentiment has improved over the past month, but producers are uncertain about the aid package’s ability to offset income losses on their farm,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The uptick in this month’s barometer derived largely from producers’ improved perception of the current situation as the Index of Current Conditions rose to 121 from 99 in July. The Index of Future Expectations also rose, but the increase was to 132, just 6 points above its July reading.
Before the August survey was conducted, the USDA announced intentions to provide aid to farmers impacted by importers’ tariffs. When asked specifically about the relief plan’s expected impact, farmers were split on whether they believed the plan addressed concerns about tariffs’ impact on their farm’s income with 47 percent saying “not at all” and a total of 47 percent saying either “completely” (4 percent) or “somewhat” (43 percent).
In August, producers were again asked how likely they thought it was that a trade war would reduce their farm’s net income. While 71 percent (virtually unchanged from July) felt their farm income will be negatively impacted, respondents who expect to see an income reduction of 20 percent or more fell from 35 percent in July to 26 percent on the August survey. “Farmers are still concerned trade conflicts will reduce their farm’s income, but some farmers clearly scaled back the magnitude of losses they expect compared to what they told us in July,” said Mintert.
The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.
About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University’s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center’s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today’s business environment.
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Writer: Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, [email protected]
Source: Jim Mintert, 765-494-4310, [email protected]