Previously, in the June 5, 2019 post to this blog, fluid milk sales trends were reviewed through the first quarter of 2019. Data is now available to review milk sales in the second quarter of 2019. Many of the same patterns seen in the earlier post linked above are continuing.
- Milk consumption is continuing to decrease. The rate of decrease is slightly over 2 percent annually.
- Sales of all reduced fat milks are declining. The declines, which will be reviewed in detail below, range from 2 percent to over 10 percent per item compared with the prior year.
- Whole milk is holding its own with a very slight increase in sales.
- Organic milk sales are continuing to decrease at a faster rate than conventional milk.
Per capita consumption of milk has been falling for decades. However, with significant population growth, total consumption was fairly constant. In recent years population growth has slowed and per capita consumption has increasingly declined.
Chart I shows the decline in milk sales based on 12-month averages for 2018 and 2019 YTD. Using a 12-month average eliminates seasonal and calendar variations. As the chart shows, the decline in sales is very linear. From the beginning of 2018 to June of 2019, the 12-month average has dropped from 4.1 billion pounds of milk to 3.9 billion pounds of milk, a 3 percent decline in 18 months.
|Chart I – 12-Month Moving Average of Milk Sales|
Chart II shows the percentage change in the 12-month rolling average sales numbers in 2018 and 2019 through June. The monthly decreases range from 1.6 percent to 2.3 percent and average 2.1 percent.
|Chart II – Percent change from Prior Year in 12-Month Averages|
|Chart III – Change vs. the Prior Year by Milk Type for the First Quarter of 2019|
|Chart IV – Change vs. the Prior Year by Milk Type for the Second Quarter of 2019|
|Chart V – Conventional vs. Organic Milk Sales|
|Chart VI – Percent Change in Sales for 2017 through 2019 YTD|
Editor’s Note: John Geuss is a dairy consultant based in Florida. This information appears in his Milk Price blog column sponsored by Addiseo and is published here with permission. He may be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org