The USDA’s Economic Research Service published its Situation and Outlook Report on Aug. 16
With cow numbers declining again in June and milk per cow falling short of estimates, the 2019 and 2020 milk production forecasts have been lowered from last month’s projections to 217.9 billion pounds (-0.3 billion) and 221.4 billion (-0.4 billion), respectively.
Export forecasts have been lowered and import forecasts have been raised on both milk-fat and skim-solids bases for 2019 and 2020.
Higher domestic use is expected to support domestic prices. The all-milk price forecast has been raised 10 cents in 2019 to $18.30/cwt, but lowered 5 cents to $18.80 for 2020.